Growth and Transformation Plan of Ethiopia Revisited: Part I
· Posted by Tamirat Yacob on December 14, 2010 at 1:30am
Historically the AfCoP- MfDR site witnessed the most popular blog it has ever seen: the Growth and Transformation Plan of Ethiopia (2010/11-2014/15) registering more than 3200 hits to date. This prompted to follow on the knowledge and experience sharing on the issue.
Since then I decided to enlighten the readers of the blog by offering some detail on the recently endorsed Ethiopian MDG based PRSP plan called the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP). Video postings of the public discussion and the awareness creation campaigns on GTP have also been attached in this site to show case the practice.
The very popular GTP has been circulated around for more than couple of months and finally endorsed by the House of People’s Representatives (HoPR), the Parliament, on December 2, 2010. The following blogs gives to all readers the possibility to have a first-hand brief overview of the document. If you have any comments or suggestions you are most welcomed! Contact the blogger at tamiratyc@yahoo.com
(In memory of who loved to share their knowledge and openly express their honest opinion and view hence lost or departed from their family, job, dignity and love!)
The Growth and Transformation plan (2010/11-2014/15) of Ethiopia has been endorsed by the House of People’s Representatives (HoPR) in early December 2010. As earlier blogs in this site showed it has gone through the different levels of public and stakeholders discussion. People have expressed their enthusiasm and skepticism.
Some showed their support saying it is achievable, the one to transform the country to the next level, a tool to help Ethiopia achieve more results and the MDGs, etc; though some expressed their frustration and criticized the plan saying it is overambitious, too political, unachievable, and even some had the opinion that it is filled with some buzz words like ‘poverty reduction’, ‘decentralization’, ‘community participation’ etc. Everyone is, I believe, entitled to have his/her opinion and in that they may have appoint or two or even more in their praises or critics. Let them express what they fill and what they have got to say.
“The first principle of a free society is an untrammeled flow of words in an open forum’’….Adlai E. Stevenson
“Give Me Liberty Or Give Me Death”… Patrick Henry, March23, 1775
The purpose of this blog is to give you some brief description of the contents of the plan and also the critics and comments given by stakeholders on it. And consecutively will present my personal reflection on the process as time and working environment wills.
N.B: The information presented here is taken from the Amharic Version of the document presented to the House of people’s representatives in early December, 2010.
Part One: The Contents of GTP: A brief summary
‘Achieving broad-based, accelerating and sustained economic growth and hence alleviating poverty has been and is the objective of the Government of Ethiopia’ is the first line that you may read in the introductory part of the GTP. It is the root for the new highly promoted, popular GTP plan and had also been the overarching agenda in the predecessor plan called Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) (2005/06-2009/10). The next five year’s plan GTP (2010/11-2014/15),carries forward important strategic directions pursued under the PASDEP and expected that beyond maintaining the fast growing economy more achievements inall development sectors are anticipated to be registered, the GTP reiterates.
This plan, as the GTP document makes it clear, is prepared taking into account the performance of the previous development plans; lessons learned during the implementations; and, based on the country’s development vision.
Besides it has benefited from the consecutive consultative meetings held at the Federal and Regional level with the government bodies, private sector, higher education institutions and professional associations, Women’s and Youth associations, Religious organizations, Civil Society and Development partners. Main issues which are believed to be important for achieving fundamental changes in economic growth, social and human development and good governance and help to achieve the objectives of the development plan are included in theplan.
The GTP is presented in ten detailed chapters. Chapter-I presents the PASDEP’s progress and achievements during the past five years (2005/06-2009/10); Chapter II presents bases and objectives of the GTP; Chapter III clearly describes the Macroeconomic Framework and Chapter IV briefly presents the costs and financing need of the plan. Chapter V and VI presents the plans in the Economic and Social Sectors, respectively; Chapter VII focuses on the Good Governance and Capacity Building plans; Chapter VIII presents the plan on cross cutting issues; Chapter IX describes Opportunities, risks and challenges in implementing the GTP; and, Chapter X presents the Monitoring and Evaluation of the GTP.
Chapter I: Achievements and Challenges under the PASDEP
The PASDEP had been prepared based on the MDGs and the country’s development vision and its main objective was to lay out the directions for accelerated, sustained, and people-centered economic development as well as to pave the groundwork for the attainment of the MDGs by 2015. To achieve this main objective the plan was built on eight pillar strategies which were:
1. Building all-inclusive implementation capacity;
2. Massive push to accelerate growth;
3. Creating the balance between economic development and population growth;
4. Unleashing the potentials of Ethiopia's women;
5. Strengthening the infrastructure backbone of the country;
6. Strengthening human resource development;
7. Managing risk and volatility; and,
8. Creating employment opportunities.
This section of the plan presents the achievements in the PASDEP period and to highlight some:
Macroeconomic performance:
During the PASDEP(2005/06-2009/10) at the 1999/00 prices, from the supply side, the economy has been growing fast on average at 11% per annum. Agriculture, Industry and Service on average have been growing at an average rate of 8%, 10.4% and 14.2%per annum, respectively. And Agriculture, Industry and Service sectors ‘contribution to GDP reached 41%, 13% and 46%, respectively.
And Agriculture, Industry and Service sectors’ contribution to GDP reached 41%, 13% and 46%,respectively.
Table 1: Growth in Gross Domestic Product and Main sectors share as percent of GDP
| Sector | Average growth target planed (2005/06-2009/10) | Average growth achieved (2005/06 - 2009/10) | Percentage share of GDP (2009/10) | |
| Base Case | High Case | |||
| GDP in 1999/00 prices (Real GDP) | 7.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 100 |
| Agriculture and allied activities | 6.0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 41 |
| Industry | 11.0 | 18.0 | 10.4 | 13 |
| Services | 7.0 | 10.3 | 14.2 | 46 |
N.B: Some figures might have been updated since the House Endorsed the plan.
Domestic revenue and external resource share of GDP in 2004/05 were 14.6% and 4.3%, respectively. And in2009/10 it reached 15.0% and 3.9%, in the aforementioned order. In addition, in2004/05 the Total expenditure and poverty oriented expenditures as percent ofGDP were 23.3% and 13.2%, respectively where it reached 21.7% and 14.5% in2009/10. And also in 2004/05 budget deficit/including loan and grants/ its percentage share to GDP was (4.4) % and reached (2.8) % in 2009/10.
Table 2: Import and Export trade share of GDP (%)
| Item | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | Average |
| Export (merchandise) | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| Import (merchandise) | 29.5 | 30.3 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 23.8 | 24.7 | 26.1 |
| Trade balance | -22.6 | -23.7 | -20.2 | -20.1 | -20.0 | -20.5 | -20.9 |
During the PASDEP period there were inflationary and foreign reserve depletion challenges, the government has taken policy and administrative measures to curb the situation. To control the inflationary pressure some of the measures taken include increasing Banks ‘reserve from 5% to 25% and increase deposit interest rate from 3% to 4%.
Agriculture and Rural Development: In 2004/05 the total land covered by these main crops was9.8 million hectare and this increased to 11.2 million hectare in 2009/10. With regards to production the total amount increased from 119.1 million quintals in2004/05 to 180.8 million quintal in 2009/10, whereas the total productivity of crops increased from 12.1 qt/hectare in 2004/05 to 15.7 qt/hectare in 2009/10.
Trade and Industry Development: During the planning period it was planned to create 2,153,742 new jobs and was possible to create 1,465,361. In textile and clothing industries sub sector it was planned to achieve, at the end of the planning period, export earnings atthe amount of 500 million USD and it was only possible to achieve 21.8 millions export earnings. Concerning leather and leather products sub-sector from shoes and other leather products it was planned to generate 221 million US however it was only possible to raise 75.73 million USD at the end of the plan period.
Also in the sugar industry sub-sector at the end of the planning period in the existing three sugar industries was planned to produce 1,510,683 tons of sugar however it was possible to produce 1,468,915 tons. In the cement industry sub-sector it was planned to have a production capacity of 4.7 million ton of cement per year and at the end of the planning period it reached a capacity of producing 1.17 million ton of cement per annum.
Mining: the volume of investment in the sector increased from 62 million birr in 2004/05 to 12.7billion birr in 2009/10; revenue from the sector increased from 20 million birrin 2004/05 increased to 50.1 million birr in 2009/10 and mining income tax has reached to 130 million birr. In addition, gold export has increased from 3439kgin 2004/05 to 4500kg in 2009/10 and tantalum export has increased from 92.5tons in 2004/05 to 171 tons in 2009/10.
Besides, from artisanal miners it was planned to supply 5000 kg and 5153 kg gold has been supplied to foreign market through the National Bank of Ethiopia and 129 million USD foreign currencies has been secured. And it was planned to supply 3500 kg of gemstone minerals for foreign market and 4500 kg has been supplied to foreign market and 2 millions has been secured.
Road Development: During the PASDEP 852kms of roads strengthened; 4039kms upgraded; 2769kms of road constructed and 3660 temporary and heavy maintenance conducted. Excluding woreda[1]roads total road length increased from 36,400kms in 2004/05 to 49, 000kms in2009/10. Also roads in good condition increased from 64% in 2004/05 to 81% in2009/10 and time to reach all weather roads decreased from 5.7 hours in 2004/05to 3.7 hours in 2009/10.
Energy: In 2004/05 the total generated power was 714 MW and was planned to increase it to 3,270 MW at the end of 2009/10 and it was able to generate 2000 MW at the end of the planning period. It was planned to increase the number of towns and rural villages which have got access to electric power from 648 in 2004/05 to 6,000in 2009/10. Accordingly, 5,163 towns and rural villages have access to electricity in 2009/10.
Telecommunications: Telecommunications in 2005/06 the number of mobile network capacity was 0.5 million and increased to 25 million in 2009/10 and the number of customers increased from 0.56million in 2004/05 to 6.5 million in 2009/10. Number of fixed line and mobile phone users was 0.62 million and 0.02 million, respectively in 2004/05 and it increased at the end of the plan period to 1 million and 0.187 million, respectively in 2009/10. Besides, telephone service available within 5kilometers radius area increased from 13% in 2004/05 to 62.14% in 2009/10.
Water: potable water access in rural areas increased from 35% in 2004/05 to 65.8% in 2009/10 and in urban areas it increased from 80% in 2004/05 to 91.5% in 2009/10. And in general, the national access to potable water increased from 36% in 2004/05 to68.5% in 2009/10.
Road transport: to ensure road safety road safety council has been established; on main transport corridors areas with high traffic accidents have been identified and traffic control has been strengthened and deaths due to accidents decreased from 104deaths per 10 thousand accidents in 2004/05 to 52 deaths per 10 thousand accidents.
Air Transport: At Bole International Airport Cargo terminal has been constructed for storage of fast perishable agricultural products. Airports at 7 different locations have been built and some are still on going, and the number of passengers and amount of cargo, the number of passengers increased from 1.55 million in 2004/05 to 3.128million in 2009/10 and cargo amount, in ton kilometers, increased from 1.42billion in 2004/05 to 2.84 billion in 2009/10.
Urban Development: During the PASDEP it was planned to construct396,000 new houses; establish 10,000 small enterprises; and, create job opportunities for 200,000 urban city dwellers, it was able to achieve at the end of 2009/10 in all regions and city administration to build 213,000 houses; establish 4,306 small construction enterprises; and, 176,000 permanent and temporary jobs were created. Among the total constructed houses 72,000 houses are passed to the beneficiaries and hence 931 million birr[2]has been raised as pre-payment.
Education: Gross Enrolment Rate for grades 1-8 increased from 79.8% in 2004/05 to 94.2% in2009/10; Primary Net Enrolment rate also increased from 68.5% in 2004/05 to86.5% in 2009/10. The disparity among male and female students GER narrowed from 0.75:1 in 2004/05 to 0.93:1 in 2009/10.Regarding Secondary School Education (Grade 9-12): in 2004/05 there were 706 secondary schools and this increased to 1,202 in 2009/10.
In 2004/05 the GER for Secondary school (9-10)was 27.3% and it increased to 38.1% in 2009/10. The Net Enrolment Rate for Secondary School (9-10) increased from 11.8% in 2004/05 to 12.6% in 2009/10.Besides, with regard to Higher Education: in 2004/05 the number of undergraduate students in Public Universities was 78,232 and it increased to 185,788 in 2009/10. The share of undergraduate female students in the public universities increased from 24% in 2004/05 to 29%in 2009/10.
Health: it was planned to train 30,000 health extension workers 33,819 were trained in the past five-year and went to different rural kebeles[3]in all over the country. The number of health posts increased from 4,211 in2004/05 to 14,416 in 2009/10. In 2005/06 the number of health centers was 644and it reached 1,787 in 2009/10. The number of public Hospitals increased from79 in 2004/05 to 111 in 2009/10. The number of women who are in child bearing age and using contraceptives increased from 15% in 2004/05 to 65% in 2009/10.
Prenatal service coverage increased from46% in 2004/05 to 63 in 2009/10. And postnatal service coverage increased from 15% in 2004/05 to 30% in 2009/10.Trained birth assisted delivery increased from 13% in 2004/05 to 25% in 2009/10although the target was to reach 32%. In general the number of mothers’ death related to delivery decreased from 871/100,000 in 2004/05 to 590/100,000 in2009/10. Under-five mortality rate decreased from 123/1000 in 2004/05 to101/1000 in 2009/10. Until 2009/10 about 10 million households living in malaria epidemic areas received 2 mosquito bed nets and hence the coverage increased from 1% in 2004/05 to 100% in 2009/10. TB cure rate increased from65% in 2004/05 to 67 in 2009/10.
Cross cutting issues: in this section of the plan document on the performance during the PASDEP period highlighted achievements and challenges faced in Gender Development and Children, Youth and Sports, Culture and Tourism, Science and Technology, and Environment.
Besides, the other issue presented briefly is the Good governance and democratization and it highlighted that to monitor justice’s system administration and provide correcting advises and to institutionalize sustainable, transparent and accountable public administration the Ombudsman, Human Rights Commission and Anti-corruption commission have been established.
During PASDEP the main plan was to give woreda administrations high power and responsibility and grant city administrations and mayors’ offices self-administration right to deliver quality service to the people; enhance the lower administrative bodies ‘implementation capacity; and address the shortage of skilled manpower and effort has been made to improve rural communication infrastructure.
The last part of this section ofthe plan presented the challenges and good practices witnessed in implementing the PASDEP.
Chapter II: Bases, Strategies and Objectives of the GTP
The GTP document in its Chapter II explains that ‘The country’s long term vision, achievements of PASDEP and lessons drawn from its implementation are the bases for conceiving the nextfive year Growth and Transformation Plan.’
Ethiopia’s long-term vision is : “to become a country where democratic rule, good-governance and social justice reigns, upon the involvement and free will of its peoples; and once extricating itself from poverty and becomes a middle-in come economy.”
Its vision in the economic sector is: “to build an economy which has a modern and productive agricultural sector with enhanced technology and an industrial sector that plays a leading role in the economy; to sustain economic development and secure social justice; and, increase per capita income of citizens so that it reaches at the level of those in middle-income countries.”
And also the major objectives of the plan, as describe in the document, include
· Maintain at least an average real GDP growth rate of 11% and meet the Millennium Development goals,
· Expand and ensure the qualities of education and health services thereby achieving the MDGs in the social sectors,
· Establish favorable conditions for sustainable state building through the creation of stable democratic and developmental state
· Ensure growth sustainability by realizing all the above objectives within stable macroeconomic framework.
Chapter III: Pillar Strategies of the GTP
Though the predecessor development plan, PASDEP, has eight pillar strategies to stand on the GTP rather has seven and they are presented in the document in detail. However, here it is presented in summary. Hence, Ethiopia’s strategy for sustaining the rapid and broad-based growth path for the next five years2010/11-2014/5, hinges on the following pillars:
1. Sustaining faster and equitable economic growth
2. Maintaining agriculture as a major source of economic growth
3. Creating favorable conditions for the industry to play key role in the economy
4. Enhancing expansion and quality of infrastructure development
5. Enhancing expansion and quality of social development
6. Building capacity and deepen good governance
7. Promote women and youth empowerment and equitable benefit
Chapter IV: Macroeconomic Framework of the Plan
MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES : Macroeconomic policy objectives during the GTP entails maintaining macroeconomic stability and thereby encouraging savings and investment through adopting appropriate policies that are designed to promote rapid and broad based growth. Fiscal and monetary policies will be managed in a manner consistent with macroeconomic objectives.
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES ANDGOALS: Macroeconomic goals of the GTP is synchronized with the overall policy objectives of maintaining the growth momentum witnessed during the PASDEP and Ethiopia’s long-term vision of being middle income country and meeting the MDGs at a minimum.
Economic Growth, Savings and Investment: The Ethiopian economy has registered an average real GDP growth rate of 11 percent per annum; thus, sustaining rapid and equitable growth is central to the GTP. It is growth that will help creating employment and raising income, eventually eradicating poverty.
There are two growth scenarios considered during the GTP period: Base case and High case growth scenarios.
Base case: Under the Base Case Scenario Ethiopia’s economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 11.2 percent which is an average growth rate attained during PASDEP.
Table 3: Real GDP Projection: Annual Growth Rate (%)
| Sector | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | Average |
| Agriculture & Allied Activities | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| Industry | 10.6 | 14.0 | 16.9 | 20.6 | 22.9 | 23.7 | 19.6 |
| Services | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| Real GDP | 10.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.2 |
Table 4: Real GDP Projection: Percentage Distribution (%)
| Sector | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | Average |
| Agriculture & Allied Activities | 42.0 | 41.1 | 40.1 | 39.2 | 38.3 | 37.4 | 39.2 |
| Industry | 13.0 | 13.4 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 18.7 | 15.6 |
| Services | 45.0 | 45.6 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 44.9 | 44.0 | 45.2 |
High Case: it is assumed that agricultural value added will double by the end of the plan period, the possible upward shift of demand will be stabilized by higher response in supply of agricultural sector; that will keep inflation rate remain at single digit.
Table 5: Projected trends in the structure of GDP growth by Industrial origin (%)
| Sector | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | Average |
| Agriculture & Allied Activities | 6.0 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 16.1 | 17.1 | 18.4 | 14.9 |
| Industry | 10.2 | 14.8 | 19.4 | 20.8 | 23.7 | 27.9 | 21.3 |
| Services | 14.5 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 12.8 |
| Real GDP | 10.4 | 12.5 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.6 | 14.9 |
Table 6: Projected trends in the structure of GDP by Industrial origin (%share)
| Sector | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | Average |
| Agriculture & Allied Activities | 42.0 | 40.9 | 40.6 | 40.9 | 41.4 | 42.0 | 41.2 |
| Industry | 13.0 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 14.8 |
| Services | 45.0 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 44.6 | 43.1 | 41.0 | 44.0 |
| Real GDP | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Fiscal policy: at the end of the plan period, share of total domestic revenue and tax revenue to GDP at current market price will reach 17.1 and 15 percent, respectively. Budget deficit share to GDP @CMP will be maintained at less than 2% on average the so as to maintain macroeconomic stability. Investment on social and economic infrastructure that has greater potential to enhance economic growth is government’s priority during GTP; hence capital expenditure percentage share of GDP at current market price is expected to reach 12.9 % in 2014/15.
Monitory policy: Inflation will be held at single digit during the plan period (2010/11-2014/15). Follow-up will be undertaken so that growth of money supply will not be in excess of nominal GDP growth. During the GTP period foreign exchange rate will not only encourage both export led and import substitution policies but also facilitates table economic growth and highly minimize foreign exchange reserves by then strengthening hard currency reserves. To implement the GTP both direct and indirect monetary instruments will be used. To encourage domestic saving and investment real interest rate will be maintained above zero.
External Sector: Exports of goods are expected to grow by 36.6% in 2010/11 and 28.4 percent on average annually during the remaining period. Similarly, exports of non-factor services are to increase by 31.1% in 2010/11 and 22.9 percent per annum on average afterwards. On the other hand import of goods is expected to continue its upper hand; by the end of the plan period, import of goods is expected to reach 35.7%of GDP. Import of capital goods that are growth enhancing will take the lions hare.
Financial Sector: To maintain healthy competition amongst financial institutions raising the efficiency & building improved banking practices will get emphasis; support to the private sector that will improve their financial services including minimizing non-performing loans (NPLs) of the banking system and improve their profitability government will conduct capacity building measures.
Chapter IV: Financing the Plan
Allocation of finance is made based on medium term Macro Economic Fiscal Framework (MEFF) an instrument used by the government to frame resource expectation form domestic and external sources and the allocation of the resources to key sectors in line with the overall development objective of the country.
During the GTP period, domestic revenue including grants will be expected to reach Birr184.6 billion by the end of the plan period from its 68.3billion in 2009/10; out of which, 161.9 billion birr will be mobilized from domestic sources while the remaining 22.6 billion birr is expected from external source.
by the end of the plan period total government spending will reach Birr 201.1 billion from its 71.3 billion in 2009/10; of which, Birr 78.9billion will be allocated to finance recurrent expenditure and Birr 122.2billion on financing capital expenditure. Similarly, by the end of the plan period, expenditure on poverty-oriented and growth enhancing sectors will reach birr 146.8 billion.
In general, in order to meet the objective set to reduce poverty during GTP period, a total of Birr 762.3 billion is required; out of which,446.2 billion will be used to finance capital outlays and the remaining Birr316.1 billion will be allocated to finance recurrent expenditure. In otherwords of the total fiancé required during the plan period 58.5% will be spent on capital outlays and 41.5% on recurrent expenditure.
FINANCING THE GAP: In2009/10 the total government revenue was Birr 66.2 billion and the total expenditure was Birr 71.3 billion. The reaming budget gap including grants amounted Birr 5.1 billion was financed through borrowing both from domestic and external sources. Similarly, by the end of the plan period a budget gap of Birr18.6 billion is expected to be financed from domestic and external borrowing.
Chapter V: Economic Sectors Development Plan
This section of the plan document presents the Agriculture and Development plan, trade and industry, Mining and infrastructure development sector which comprises of road, rail way transport, energy, telecommunication, water supply and irrigation, transport services, maritime transport, air transport services. And also this section of the plan has brief sections on urban and construction development.
Chapter VI: Social Sector Development
This part of the development plan focuses on sectoral development plans of Education and Health. Detailed presentations have been made, for example in primary, secondary, tertiary and vocational training centers under the education plan. Concerning the Health section improving access and qualityof health services has been discussed well in the plan and coherent plantargets are set under specific health interventions. (See the last section ofthis part to see the targets set under the GTP)
Chapter VII: Capacity Buildingand Good Governance
This section of the plan focused on capacity building which mainly concentrates on enhancing the implementation capacity which is an existing challenge to achieving better results. Also the issue of fighting corruption has gotten its section in the document. The plan also briefly describes the measures and the targets under enhancing public participation in the development process. Improve capacity and leadership of top management, Human Resource Development (HRD), build the Capacity of Government Institutions, establish an effective, efficient, accountable and transparent Government Financial Managements System, enhance transparent and accountable system, build the capacity of Woreda and Kebele Councils, Support the reform with ICT are some of the issues which the GTP has given a brief attention in the document.
Justice system development is one of the issues which took the major part of this chapter of the plan where Strengthening the constitutional system and ensuring rule of law; Rendering effective, efficient and accessible justice; Ensuring the independence, transparency and accountability of the justice system; and building a stable and strong federal system and ensuring the peace and security of it’s the citizens is the goal of the justice sub-sector.
Under the Good governance sub section brief description has been made what is to be done during the GTP. Strengthen the democratic and good governance institutions; broad based awareness creation about human rights and constitution; ensure one political and economic community; legislate laws and directives to create enabling system to ensure democratic representation and accountable to public resource; and, ensure councils accountability to the public are the focus areas under the good governance sub-section.
Information communication technology development plan is the last partof Chapter VII. As clearly set out in the document the objectives under ICT development plan include: expanding information and communication technology in the entire nation step by step and at all levels of the society at large scale; support social and economic development, and promote good governance through information and communication technology development; foster Human Resource Development in Information and Communication Technology; and, creating suitable policy, regulatory and legal environment to get rid of poverty and to expedite the success of developmental goals and to expand the development of information and communication technology.
Chapter VIII: Cross Cutting Sectors Development Plan
This section of the GTP plan document briefly describes the objectives, strategies and targets set in Gender and Children’s affairs: ensure women’s active participation in the country’s development process and enhance their benefit from the country’s economic growth; increase participation in the social sector and empower them by abolishing Harmful Traditional Practices, and asserting their participation in politics. And with regard to children’s affairs, the main objectives in the plan period include: ensure that children are benefiting from the economic growth; provide adequate care and support to orphan and children at risk; enhance children’s participation rights; reducing harmful traditional practice son children and ensure that their safety and rights are respected.
Youth and Sports development: enhancing the participation of youth in the democratic governance and economic development process and build the capacity in the sports sector to produce best athletes for regional and international competitions.
HIV/AIDS Prevention and Control: reducing HIV/AIDS prevalence rate and reducing the sickness and death rate hence the social impact it puts on the society.
Social welfare: expanding all inclusive and participatory social welfare and security program; identify and take measures to address social welfare challenges; expansion of care and support programs for mentally ill and the elderly people; and, contribute for the development endeavors of the country.
Labor Affairs: ensuring expansion of job information services; ensure job safety and stability of the working environment; and, enhance labor productivity hence contribute to thesocio-economic development accomplishments.
Population and development: lay strong foundation to harmonize demographic nature with development outcomes.
Culture and tourism development: ensure that sustainable development and conservation of tourism sites and cultural heritages with the community’s participation is contributing for socio-economic development.
Science and technology development: establishing institutions which helps to improve productivityand quality of production; establish institutions for technological transfer; implement innovation strategy and produce quality human resource; use quality and standards information for technological transfer to help exports of services and products compete at the global market; radioactive materials and radiation control for citizen’s safety; and, strengthen intellectual/property right and science and technology development systems.
Environment and climate change: formulate policies, strategies, laws and standards, which could foster social and green economy development to enhance sustainable welfare condition ofcitizens and the safety of the environment, and ensure environmental policies and strategies are implemented effectively.
Chapter IX: Opportunities, Risks and Challenges in implementing the GTP
“Considering the time horizon and scope of the GTP, it is inevitable that there would be both opportunities, and unforeseen risks and challenges that emerge as the program unfolds. Accordingly, the Government has attempted to take these into consideration in formulating the strategy by weighing up recent performance and achievements as well as challenges encountered, by evaluating the socioeconomic and political circumstances under which the plan has been conceived, and the international economic climate. The foreseeable opportunities are supposed to help successfully implement the development plan whereas the risks and challenges are expected to put a hurdle in the achievement of the set goals in the plan. However, the Government has tried to assess the possible positive and negative external developments that may affect the performance of the Ethiopian economy during the next five years, and the environment in which the plan is implemented” argues the GTP document.
The opportunities mentioned include: the country’s comparative advantage in labor, huge market and natural resources potential if used effectively in the coming five years thus the possibility of speeding up development; good opportunities are created from integrated implementation of capacity building and good governance packages at different administration levels to enhance public participation to register better results, and effective and transparent service delivery in different sectors; during the GTPit would be possible to support the investment need of the economy through increasing the community’s participation in effective collection of domestic revenue, savings and resource utilization. In addition, the good relationship between the government and development partners and the government’s effort in development to eradicate poverty and consequently increase external finance mobilization and inflow are some of the foreseeable good opportunities.
Possible risks include: low implementation (system, administrative and human resource) capacity; low level of national saving rate in consequence not able to support investment need ofthe economy; and, unpredictability of external financing. Besides, it is anticipated that global marketprice fluctuations may challenge effective implementation of the plan.
Chapter X: Monitoring and Evaluation of the GTP
This part of the GTP document mentions about the historical background of the M&E system in Ethiopia which dates back to 1996 before the advent of the PRSPS and hence this Welfare Monitoring System Program governess the GTPs M&E system as it has done during the PASDEP (2005/06-2009/10) and the first PRSP called Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program of Ethiopia (SDPRP) which run from 2002/03-2004/05. And in the M&E system the key roles to be played are by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Federal Line Ministries and the Central Statistical Agency. And the lessons and the best practices that comes out of the M&E system will be used as afeedback to the whole system and help timely leadership, political and policy measures or directions be taken. Besides, a policy matrix of agreed indicators will be presented by the MoFED.
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