Happy Prememptive Security & prosperity Strategy for 2008

Global Strategic Enterprises, Inc for Peace and Prosperity-
www.globalbelai4u.blogspot.com
Win-Win Synergistic Partnership with 7Es (Education+Empowerment+Emotion+Energy+Ecology+Economy+Enterprises)

Dear Friends and Patriotic British, Ethiopians and US of the Americas:

Wishing you a Prosperous and Secure 2008 with Win-Win Partnership strategies or Pre-emptive Strategic Security in place.

Re: Managing the ever present Change is our destiny:



Regeneration/Rennaissance and Managing Change.

Change is the only constant in life both at persnal, community and global ecology. At presonal level, we have the astounding capacity for regeneration. By activating our regenerative power, we can slow down the catabolic (decrease damage) and increase the anabolic (rebuild and repair) process and even reserse the aging process.

We are literally falling apart or accelerate our aging process because the cells we are making are weaker than those cells they are replacing. We can learn to make better cells. We literally make over 300 billion cells per day and replace the same amount. If the new cells we make are healthier and stronger than the ones they replace, we can in a real sense grow younger, regenerate and create renaissance among our cells.

If we do this consistently, day after day and every aspect of who we are will improve. We can change our appearance, our biochemical makeup, strength, stamina, sex drive, memory, mood and attitude.

We can change our nano, micro and macro world by managing change within and without. We can change our ecology and our social order for the better too. We need to learn to manage change.
Security+Peace+ Prosperity:

The Millennial Renaissance Transformation Agenda or strategy is based on Security+Peace and Prosperity that is based on the synergistic symbiosis of nature and nurture and perpertual management of change at personal, community, social and global ecology and economy!

Continuous regenerations+transformations at play!

Our body and the ecology at large regenerates itself on a continuous basis by recycling nutrients and organic and non organic elements.

Some of these transformations take place on a long time span and at times fairly short when earth quakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, tsunami es and the like take place. What is sure is the regeneration process is continuous regardless its manifestation in time and space. Change is the universal constant and we need to learn to manage change and be part of a creative and interactive process of change for good for all.

Water+Earth+ Organic Matter synergize the planet!

Global change is taking place across all spectrum. It could be climate, life events or social transformations. Water which makes up more than 75% of the Global mass continues to shape life on earth with the other terrestrial and celestial light energy. Besides the Ocean water, the river basins have been the source of resources to sustain civilizations. The river basins and oceanic floor is rising due to the melting of glacial mountains.

The Horn's Vernability is both natural and man made!

At the same time the river basins and associated lakes and reservoirs are drying up much faster. Global change is taking place rather rapidly and its impact is referred as Global Warming and Global Cooling depending where you live. The challenge remains that we are not taking charge of the Global Change environment and appear to be rather disinterested observers. We cannot continue such level of ignorance and incompetence to continue in 2008.

Propecting for Peace has moved on to managing Global Climate Change!

Noble Scientists are indicating the danger by awarding even their Peace Awards to Ecologists and their new political allies like AlGore of USA and Kenyan Scientists of Africa and their associates.

What will 2008 bring to the African continent and especially the Horn where the Global Change has been impacting the social and economic fabric rather negatively is the question many pose to the contending Civil War Lords and the new set of Horn terrorists. What is your plan for Global Climate Change which impacts the region regardless of who is in power or assumed power?

Intelligent People+ Natural Resources=Enterprises!

Vertical and Horizontal Integration of knowledge, science and technology is needed to respond to the glaring challenges of the time. The most populous country in the Horn, Ethiopia will have no other option but to continue to seriously consider the synergies the human and natural resources. Besides the fertile soil and all its components, the other two most important natural resources as its tool for its Millennial Transformation Strategy: Water and Coffee are referred to as "White oil" and "black gold" respectively.

Young People are the future! Do not forget they are vulnerable- all revolutions thrive on their naivety!

The other important resource is the intelligence pool of its 80 million people; who are mistakenly considering by outsiders as being at each others throat all the time. This negative and perverted impression need to change. Ethiopians appreciate that the most important resource and value is its people and especially its talented young people. Evolving statistics over the past few decades indicate that the people happen to be by and large very young where more than 50% are expected to be below 20 years of age.

Should we empowr our youth or change them into suicide bombers?

This is a country with a very high proportion of young population that needs education, skills and most of all a secure environment for nurturing and developing. Hence security and ecological stability are critical to nurture this high volume impressionable age young productive adults. should we empower our youths for productivity and prosperity or discard them as suicide bommbers shaming all of us. That is the choice we have to make in 2008.

The Terrorists are stealing our youths and turning them against us!

It so happens that creating that secure environment is the real challenge in an ecosystem where nature and nurture seem to conspire against it. Any self respecting government in the region will appreciate that security and enabling environment for good governance is key to convert this large potential workforce into highly skilled and creative economic power house.

Civil war, terror are the recipe for disaster. Unfortunately due to our family, state and social negligence towards our youths, the terrorists are turning them into suicide bombers, shaming all of us!

The Horn is challenged by man made and natural disaster!

The recent series of developments in the Horn, and, the Western Middle-east do not seem to encourage the much needed nurturing peaceful secure environment required to engage this highly vulnerable and yet very powerful youth with great potential.

Unfortunately, where the Partners for Peace have failed to realize this great potential, the partners for terror know this very will and spend a lot of time and effort in organizing the youth for destruction.

Western Intellegence and Opinions formers should be shamed!

Unfortunately, the western journalists and opinion formers are fanning the conflict and disabling environment by drumming up the chaotic environment which the terrorists thrives on.

Imagine, none of them be it those from New York Times of BBC will allow the same level of insecurity to be fanned in their own home neighborhoods. Why create disability among people who are their natural allies and have sacrificed their resources and future with them in the Second World War, in Korea, the Congo and other international conflict zones is beyond explanation.

Patriotic Ethiopians should speak up and let our good US and British friends know that we care! Win-win is two ways, we cannot continue to be abused and betrayed!

Some one has to tell them that friends do not undermine friends. Learn from Sadam, ?Bin Laden and the Shah, you cannot betray your friends and expect you to sing hallelujah with you. Ethiopia has been betrayed so many times, and it is time to say, enough is enough! Wake up, friends do not betray friends!

Look around the globe and ask who is mainly involved in terror, war and conflict? Mainly young people below the age of 25 are paying with their lives and their future, what the older mature adults failed to solve around a round table. Sadly, the children of these immature adults are not sent to the battle ground but those children whose parents are not even sitting around the table do so.

Imagine the Pakistani recruting British Suicide Bombers! Watch CNN; Terror Central!

Almost all the suicide bombers and soldiers in the Peace and Terror front are young people who have parents, families and most of all friends who will miss them. They are all brainwashed by the older folks to die young. Many offer them 72 Virgin girls in the after life, others some college opportunity if they make it but almost all never make it. Those who survive are not given the basic protection of life be it in the highly developed Super Power world or in the dilapidated part of the poow world. The recent Veterans treatment both in the First and Last world is appalling.

What is good for the best citizen is good for every one!

As the Queen's grandson was kept from serving in Iraq, the children of the common people need some one to say you cannot go to a place where life has no value. So, our children and our youth deserve a better future. A future of win-win synergistic partnership for Peace and Prosperity and not death, injury and disabilities.

The stakes are so high, that any one who worked with youth will understand they do not deserve the world of chaos we are creating in almost every field around the world.

People of the horn have suffered for so long that they have no option but to choose life over death, prosperity over poverty. The real question is that the other stakeholders, the decision makers, will they ever allow it? That is the question and the purpose of this article.

Synergy rather than Conflict is the way for the future!

As the Ethiopian leadership commits to security, peace, development and empowerment of its people, the disabling environment seems to be active against positive nurturing environment. The challenge remains to protect the security of the region and at the same time to promote a highly proactive enabling environment for development and prosperity.

In Digital and Instant Communication Age, Public Opinion matters!

Within this larger context the recent series of articles from New York Times (Geffrery Gettleman a 25 year old Jewish American from Nairobi and now the two detached self appointed experts from the BBC and Chatam house is rather disturbing.


I found the attached BBC report on the Horn and the region rather amusing and felt compelled to respond.

Responding to challenges with facts and history!

I read with interest and rather amusement the best of the British intelligence and counter-intelligence team in the person of Sally the former Ethiopian Desk Officer at the Foreign Office during the Derg and now Chatam House fellow and an OBE wutg Martin Platt a veteran diplomatic correspondent at the BBC World Service pontificating on the Horn and Ethiopia and the Horn from their perspectives.

Some times detached analysis is dangerous!

I say with all due respect, they are dead wrong this time as the BBC was dead wrong appeasing ONLF terrorists by giving them prime time terror campaign propaganda outlet when the Ethiopians and Chinese were murdered in Ogaden. There was no outrage and it was reported as freedom fighters doing collateral damage.

Put yourself in other people shoes first!

If we take Sally's and Martin's analogy further it would take us to imagine what they and the rest of the world would say, if the world could respond to what happened on 7/7 and 9/11 on the same terms. In effect creating heroes and martyrs out of these horrendous terrorist activities. Terrorism is criminal activity whether it happens in London, Lisbon, Dallol Depression or the Ogaden Oil Fields. The only difference is geography. So, terrorism does not recognize artificial man made boundaries, in fact it thrives in them.

Our memories serve us right! Trust but verify!

We remember the way we responded to the Dalol Depression British Diplomatic Hostages and the way BBC responded to our plight in the Ogaden Massacre by the criminals the BBC still considers collateral damage. It is unacceptable and subhuman rationale.

Common shared values should prevail! Security+Prosperity!

Hypocrisy needs to be challenged where ever it comes from. Here are two highly skilled British diplomat and journalists by all accounts one of the two two senior British Foreign Service and BBC Foreign Services outfits who are engaged in sanitizing the Horn terror, enabling and encouraging a new wave of potential danger for the region. Why? Is this by intention or by ignorance. All the same here is my take!

Patriotism is about protecing our most vulerable groups- the youths and putting facts on the table!

Here is the Patriotic Ethiopian/British and US Perspective, at least for the record, if not to galvanize the current public opinion towards Patriotic Ethiopians/British and US as well as UN Citizens to alert to the challenges of those who are trying to bring Good Governance to the region.

Transformation can happen!

Ethiopia's Millennial Renaissance Transformation agenda and perspective remains to be promoting Peace and Prosperity for the region! This is in line with African Union, Arab League, European Union and United Nations intentions, at least on paper.

Real history first!

Ethiopia used to govern all the lands of the Nile Basin, up to Madagascar and Egypt and the Red Sea Area, some say as far as the Indian Subcontinent. At the dawn of the 1960s Africa's decolonization, Ethiopia willfully supported the decolonization process by putting forward its meagre resources at the OAU- training freedom fighters and diplomats at the same time.

An island of freedom needs free nations around it!

Ethiopia learned first hand on its own successive experiences that being the only independent nation surrounded by Regional/Turkish and European sharks did not pay both at Gunder, Adwa, Metema and Maichew, etc and now in Badme and Baidowa.

Appeasing and compromising common shared value has a big price!

The old strategy of appeasing super powers or regional powers and accommodating all others at ones national security expense, as it happened in Assab (renting the Red Sea Coast outlet it to the Catholic intelligence officers cum priests and business outfits, and loosing the whole Red Sea Coast; or the French Catholics in Djibouti or Puntland and Somali land to the British and Mogadishu (Meqdes) to the Italians and hoping for the best did not pay.

Ethiopia opted for Collective Security without the Collection of Free States!

In fact, they all took as much as they could by sealing off Mainland Ethiopia from sea outlets. Now their surrogates via Shabab, Shabia and AlQaeda Network are trying to do what the Europeans tried and failed in the 1930s and before.

Ethiopia's response was the OAU and now AU and Pre-emptive Security strategy!

Appeasing the European Powers did not work!

Ethiopia even tried the League of nations of collective security and going down the tube when the French decided to appease Hitler (the Germans) by trying o get Mussolini (Italy) on their side and in the process decided to keep silent when Ethiopia was butchered by the supreme terrorist of the day. But, the Germans came and Paris was carpet bombed and later London.

Dictators hate weak opposition!

The famous 1935 speech by the Emperor Haile Selassie was indicative of what could happen and it was prophetic. That support did not come after 5 years of Carpet bombing with poisonous gas and mass murder in Addis and the country as a whole. To date, no one has taken responsibility and even the Genocide Museums across the world are not preserving this sad episode in human history.

Selective Memory will encourage repeating the same mistakes!

The US Genocide Memorial stands out in its ignorance of this criminal act while it overexposes the Jewish Genocide it intentionally omits the Ethiopian Genocide, yet again making the Ethiopian experience of terror non available to the next generation so that such acts are never repeated.

But Alas they are going to be repeated if we allow the BBC to have its way, yet, Why?

Americans saved Europe but ignored Ethiopia burning!

So, the Americans came to save their ancestral home and in the mean time, the New York based Italian community- the Current parents of the Juliani Clan campaigned with all they have got to ensure that the US will not support Ethiopia.

Terrorists use surrogate armies! Our own neglected children?

Unfortunately, their surrogate terrorists groups led by Shabia, Shabab and AlQaeda Network hired the Juliani Lobbying firm by paying to the tune of $410,000 to access Bush in the current attempt to isolate Ethiopia, militarily, economically and diplomatically to no avail. Why?

Decision Science encourages Option Appraisal and Pre-emption!

We learned to pre-empt such diplomatic sanctions. In fact, President bush might be the first President ever to visit Addis after 103 years of continuous diplomacy. That was when we had Patriotic African Americans working at the State Department and coordinating the movement to liberate Ethiopia with Dr Melaku Bayan and the Ethiopian Research Council.

The US short memory needs to be supported with Digital Technology Memory!

Compare this to present day Congressional Black Caucus and Ethiopian Caucus activities and you can see how badly we are fairing in the diplomacy frnt in Congress, even though we are much ahead at the White House and State and Defence Department where it matters!


The current two British political and Information Scientists analysis is similar to what Chamberlain, the then PM and Prince of Wales who abdicated his throne failed strategy!

Sorry, Sally and Martin, read carefully your own history (Second World War) first, before you advise others!

Lessons from the past 50 years!

So, that was 50 years ago and what are the British intelligence and counter intelligence office today led by Sally and her BB C colleague tell us to day, exactly what their parents used to say 50 years ago. Save for Patriot Sylvia Pankhurst and PM Anthony Eden who sided with patriotic Ethiopians.


Current enemies were once former friends!

The Bin Laden and Sadam Fiasco is a CIA creation (Watch Charlie Wilson movie and History Channel). Some times the way we treat each other is the source of lasting friendships or the creation of new enemies. Ethiopia has been and continues to be the friend of Peace loving nations as evidenced in all the International Peace Treaties, be it the League of Nations, United Nations, etc, where Ethiopia is the founding member in all peaceful organizations. Has it paid off, not really?


Our Intelligence should protect our common shared value not genetic identities!

The genetic identity of all humanity is 99.7% identical. So, national interest and intelligence operations should focus in producing our common destiny instead of our external anatomic differences such as colour, ethnicity and geographic localizations. With the advent of modern technology, one can have breakfast in China and lunch in Europe and Dinner in Americas and the next breakfast in Africa.

As mother of Humanity, isn't the Anglo-Saxon tribe part of the Ethiopian Lucy (Dinqnesh family?) So, why perpetuate ignornace? So, where is the current localized regional security and intelligence agenda going to take us. We need to have a synergized intelligence and security platform where every body and every region matters. The Hurricanes, the Tsunamis and the Volcanoes do not disciminate by region or by language so why bother!


Real intelligence should be about creative win-win parnterhsips!

Now, the US Intelligence created Bin Laden, Saddam, Bhutto and supported them to create havoc in the region and Ethiopia was the main causality. Sadam and Buhoto were the two outfits supporting terrorists int he Red Sea region for the past 30 years dismantling the Ethiopian fabric and what happened to them both.

Those who messed with Ethiopia were eventfully hanged by their own people!

The laws of nature and divine world follow justice!

Ethiopia did not invade Italy, Turkey, Britain, France , Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iraq!

Just look at the fate of terrorists and dictators!

Mussolini Hanged, Sadam hanged, and Bhuto blown by the smae evil forces they nurtured. Now, Tahir Aweye supported and guided by EPRP fools came to Ethiopia in 1977 upto Nazareth and destroyed the cities in between and who was supporting them, the same incompetent Jimmy Carter and his cronies who allowed the American Embassy to be overtaken in Iran and allowed a new demonic system to over run the region.

Sadam and Bhuto trained and supported the terrorists in the Red Sea region for over 40years!

As history recalls, Sadam was then unleashed on the Iranians where thousands lost their lives for no outcome, and now, we are told he was launched on the Quaitees too but was advised against it. This is not in any way similar to what happened in Moqadisho and any association is negligence at best and incompetence at its worst.


Remembering Colonel Tahir and now Shiek Tahir Awiye and his criminal adventures!

Remember, Tahir Aweye and his misguided cohorts were declaring Jihad on Ethiopia and was planning to murder Ethiopians all the way to Addis and worship his victory at the Anwar Mosque in Mercato! This was taking place every other day for weeks after his Chat Mirqana sessions showcasing his military outfits!

Tahir Aweye's life is full of adventures and misadventures!

Appeasing the AlQaeda, Shabia and Shabab Network does not help!

True to his word, just months before, he had sent his lieutenants to Jimma, Ethiopia and massacred the Christians in the Church in the middle of worship and then had the courage to send another set of terrorists to do the same in the heart of northern Ethiopia. The second group were caught red handed with all the tools of terror, before they were able to unleash such terror that the populations will go into revenge extravaganza that would unleash civil war of t he likes of Bagdad.

Fortunately, the Ethiopian intelligence prevailed and his criminal plans were pre-empted and he got what he planned for Addis in his own backyard at Moqadisho and Kisimayo. .

The foolish intelligence or counter-intelligence networks needs a feedback!

Now, the same fools at BBC and tell us, oh! like Sadam, Ethiopia was told not to go to Baidowa when the fools in Moqadisho were giving press release every day around 3:00 pm to international journalists that their next stop was Addis and actually moved all the way to Biadow and narrowly missed the President of Somalia but killed his brother and his entourage.

Ethiopia went in at the request of the legitimate Somali Government!

Three is no comparison between what happened in Kuwait and Baidowa. However, we can see what the intentions of the two British writers are. To paint Ethiopia a paraya state when they should seriously consider Eritrea and the Somali Terrorists to join the terrorist lists,


It was BBC that promoted Terrorist activities in Ogaden by giving unfettered access to propaganda when the ONLF terrorized the Chinese and Ethiopians in Ogaden on April 24, 2007 what is referred by the African people on the same footing on 9/11 as 4/24 in the same footing as 7/7 in Britain.

Remember how Ethiopia responded when the British diplomtas were hijacked by the same outfit in the Afar Dalol region and remember how the BBC responded when Ethiopians were killed. Hipocrisy is the only judgement of such callous disregard to diplomacy in the face of outright terror. The British tried to appease Isayas and his AlQaeda network and what happened, Tony Blair was booted out of office.

Appeasement never works and now Sally and the BBC are at it again!

The real lesson is that Ethiopia preempted the loony terrorist in their home and succeeded in ensuring that it did not take place in Addis as planned.

So, when Ethiopia went in to ensure that the battle ground will rage in Moqadisho and not in Addis, the same loony intelligent officers who tole the British and the French if you sacrifice Ethiopia Hitler will not carpet bomb Paris and London are now telling us via the BBC and Foreign Service if you just appease the Shabia- AlQaeda and Shebab Network they will stay at Jimma and not come to Addis.

Terrorists donot like appeasers, listen to Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zahwiri and Isayas carefully!

Go to “Youtube” and type their names and will learn first hand intelligence. Stop guessing where you do not need to.

Tell Sally and her BBC friend this type of appeasement only allowed the carpet bombing of her beloved Paris and London. Ethiopians learn from their mistakes. Collective Security with fools does not work. Pre-emptive Security wi intelligent people will work.

Sally's advice or the current appeasement strategy to the British led down PM Blair and what next?

So, let Sally and BBC (Terror Appeasors Par Excellence) advice the British to hide from Bagdand in their own homes and the Pakistan local army will cut their heads off in their own homes as they did on 7/7 and Ethiopia will not allow what they did to PM Blair. The PMs of Britian and Spain lost due to foolish appeasers.

Dictators and Terrorists do not respect appeasers and those with short memory!

Lean from Bhuto and Pakistan, Ethiopia will never allow such stupidity to reign in Addis. Just imagine how far it would take appeasing Musharaf when the writing is on the wall. Here again, watch CNN (Pakistan- Terror Central) to imagine what can happen to mainland Britain if the current trend continues. The British Journalists needs to be given International Award and even Knighthood where he has succeded where the BBC and success British PMs failed to understand Pakistan and the Military Outfits for what they are : Terror Central.

The Republicans have to shape public opinion in the 2008 election

The battle for the hearts and minds of the general public continues to be a challenge. Patriotic citiznes across the world have to speak up and shape the discussions at all opportunities.

The republicans and Presdient Bush Group might also pay the price for not responding appropriately to Pakistan- Afghanistan Terror Central! We will see what will happen in just few months in the USA. It is likely Terror Central might move to the Horn unless Ethiopia and African Union do their respective home work about alerting the world about the impending threats and challenges.

CORT Analysis: Risk Management Strategy at work!

CORT Analysis is part of the Strategic Risk Management Tool where challenges, Opportunities, Risks and Threats are considered seriously by disagregating them and then re-integrating them acorss all matrices towards the strategy of converting all challenges to opportunities, via win-win synergy based on common shared values, vision, mission, goal and SMART Objectives that is specific, measurable, appropriate, realistic and Time Sensitive.

If allthe martyrs of terror were alive to day their strategic advics will be:

Hitler, Mussoloni, Sadam, Bhuto, etc, if they were alive would tell you appeasing people who are prepared to murder you does not work. Unfortunately, they will not be here to speak for themselves but we can easily make their work talk to us by remembering them. That is where the past, present and the future meet.

Ethiopians have moved on and will pre-empt their security any where and any time. Becuase we have learned the supreme lesson of the price of appeasement and do nothing whehn danger is marching like the Hurricans of the Gulf which destroy the US and Caribbean coast lines year after year.

Pre-emption my boy and my girl! and Strategic Security is the option!

All the same, Somalia and Kuwait are not the same, please read carefully the history lesson. Ethiopian know better.

Peace is about constructive engagement not abandoning responsibility

The lesson is that Peace and Security does not come by appeasement but by creative engagement. The terrorists know one and only one knowledge, trust but verify, engage with courage and wisdom.

Confront the terrorist and do not run away! They do not respect fools and people with short memory!

The Ethiopian people have first hand experience of not to run away from facts and evidence. The BBC and Sally Hillies assessment is not supported with facts and evidence is shear misguided analysis.

Seeking alternative perspectives and prepared to learn from others views, I encourage you to review www.globalbelai4u. blogspot. com. to see that Ethiopians are engaged in Good Governance, Peace and Prosperity and will allow the failed policy of appeasement of the 2nd world war to be repeated again.

Those who do not learn from history will be forced to repeat the same mistake over and over again.

Read carefully the intelligence Kuwait/Irag * Ethiopia and Somalia are divergent in any thing and the attached analysis is not clsoe to the facts of life in the Horn.

with regards

Dr B



Belai Habte-Jesus, MD, MPH
Global Strategic Enterprises, Inc. 4 Peace & Prosperity
Win-win synergestic Partnership 4P&P-focusing on 5Es: Education+Energy+ Ecology+Economy+ Enterprises
www.Globalbelai4u. blogspot. com; Globalbelai@ yahoo.com
C: 703.933.8737; F: 703.531.0545


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http://news. bbc.co.uk/ 2/hi/africa/ 7155868.stm)
Ethiopia in Somalia: One year on
By Martin Plaut
BBC Africa analyst

The Ethiopian decision to invade Somalia in December 2006 altered
the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.

On 28 December 2006, they helped government forces capture Islamists
from the capital, Mogadishu, which they had controlled for six
months.

Ethiopian forces, which had been facing Eritrea along their 1,000km
border, but were otherwise confronting few security threats, are now
engaged on three fronts.

The forces in Somalia are now bogged down and cannot withdraw, as
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi recently acknowledged.

In addition to the conflict in Somalia they now also confront a
growing rebellion in the Somali region of Ethiopia from the Ogaden
National Liberation Front.

Knox Chitiyo, head of the Africa programme at the Royal United
Services Institute in London, believes the Ethiopian military
position is increasingly difficult.

"The government now has daggers pointing at it from all directions,"
he says.

"It is facing a multi-front war with no prospect of a military
victory."

The invasion has:

Left Ethiopia bogged down in Somalia

Forced around 600,000 Somalis to flee their homes, in what the UN
has described as one of the worst humanitarian situations in Africa
Brought the United States into the conflict, allied to Ethiopia
Left Eritrea even more isolated from the international community and
threatened with being declared a terrorist state by Washington.


The US says it opposed the Ethiopian invasion, although it certainly
supplied assistance to the Ethiopian military once the invasion had
happened, and used its AC-130 gunships to try to kill senior
Islamists on at least one occasion in January 2007.

The US Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer said: "We urged
the Ethiopian military not to go into Somalia."
This is acknowledged by Ethiopian officials, who say the then head
of US Central Command, General John Abizaid told them the invasion
would be a mistake, and warned that Somalia would become "Ethiopia's
Iraq."

Others analysts are not so apocalyptic. Ethiopia argued it had no
alternative but to confront the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) after
it took power in Mogadishu in mid-2006, because of the Islamists'
alleged links with al-Qaeda.

The declaration of a jihad against Addis Ababa by UIC leader Sheik
Hassan Dahir Aweys was seen as the last straw.

Human cost

But even if the UIC was routed, it has now re-formed and has banded
together with other forces in the Eritrean-based Alliance for the
Liberation of Somalia.

Sally Healy of the Royal Institute of International Affairs argues
that even if Ethiopia has made some security gains, the suffering of
ordinary Somalis has been disproportionately high.

"The cost for the people of Mogadishu has been unacceptable, " she
says.

This reflects the view of the United Nations, which now considers
Somalia the worst humanitarian crisis in Africa.

Peter Smerdon of the World Food Programme says it will have to try
to feed at least 1.2 million Somalis during 2008.
"More than 600,000 people were forced from their homes in Mogadishu
in 2007 by fighting and the worst cereals harvest in 13 years in
Middle and Lower Shabelle, traditionally the most agriculturally
productive regions of the whole country," Mr Smerdon says.

He warns the numbers needing food aid could well rise if there is
continued insecurity and any kind of repeat of the floods and bad
harvests seen in recent years.

New initiative

So how might the Somali crisis be resolved?

Ethiopia has said it would consider withdrawing its troops if an
international peacekeeping force were put in place, but UN Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon has said the situation in the country makes such
a deployment "neither realistic nor viable".

The UN believes a new initiative is required, bringing together
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government and the opposition.

This proposal was put forward by the UN's senior Somali official,
Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, when he addressed the UN Security Council
earlier this month.

"These discussions should preferably be held in a location close to
Somalia or in one where most observers following the situation in
the country are based," he said.

"I am preparing the agenda, identifying a possible list of
participants, and the timing for this process."

Ms Healy says this is really the only way forward.

Until an exit strategy can be achieved for Ethiopia, its troops will
remain in occupation of the country - providing a cause around which
the Islamists can rally.

"The Somali people must create a situation that would allow the
Ethiopians to leave," she says.

But 16 years after the country last had a functioning national
government, there seems little prospect of President Abdullahi Yusuf
asserting control of the whole country in 2008.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news. bbc.co.uk/ go/pr/fr/ -/2/hi/africa/ 7155868.stm

Published: 2007/12/28 00:25:08 GMT

© BBC MMVII
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1. Kenya: World Bank boss under fire


Business Daily (Kenya), by Albert Muriuki - January
11, 2008.


A World Bank internal memorandum endorsing the
controversial re-election of President Kibaki has
stirred a major diplomatic controversy over the
polls outcome.


The memo has also put Mr Colin Bruce, World Bank’s
Kenya country director, on a collision path with the
Orange Democratic Movement, whose presidential
candidate Raila Odinga is contesting Mr Kibaki’s
re-election and has opened internationally mediated
talks, demanding his removal from office. The talks,
led by Ghana’s President John Kufuor, were yesterday
wavering with Reuters news agency claiming that former
UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan would take over as
the mediator.


The international community’s attention was, however,
focused on the leaked memo and the subsequent
exchanges within the World Bank, the European Union
and the UK. It reveals the behind-the-scene battles
that ensued as the international community struggled
to deal with the poll outcome and the political
fallout that has claimed nearly 500 lives and
destroyed Sh60 billion worth of property.

Analysts said the memo also unravelled the various diplomatic
interests that are shaping debates on Kenya in Western
capitals – mostly driven by foreign policies of the
participating governments.

The battles will also help shed light on the underlying positions that the
various international organisations have taken and the great powers that support them. This could influence the outcome of the political settlement reached by the mediation process.


Email correspondence between senior World Bank officials in Washington and Nairobi show that two leading international bodies, the UN and the World Bank — which offer the most development aid to Kenya — consider the re-election of President Kibaki
to have been proper.

The UNDP office in Kenya however denied having agreed with the World Bank on anything in relation to the Kenyan elections. The UNDP office
in Kenya told the Business Daily that the World Bank
“had misquoted them”.

While the US has dispatched Jendayi Frazer, its Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, and asked her to stay in the region — as long as it takes — the Kenyan problem now appears to be tied to the future of the war on
terror.


Endorsement by the World Bank was also being understood to explain President Kibaki’s confidence in announcing the date of the opening of
the 10th Parliament and his naming of a Cabinet, even as President Kufuor, the preferred mediator of both President Kibaki and Mr Odinga, tried to arbitrate. On
January 7, a statement from White House “condemned the use of violence as a political tool and appealed to both sides to engage in peaceful dialogue.”

A day later Mr Odinga called off the protest rallies he had planned for the next day as Mr Kibaki went on to name a Cabinet and announce the opening of Parliament. “The endorsement could of course have contributed to the confidence the president had in announcing a date for the opening of Parliament and naming the Cabinet,” said Dr Kithure Kindiki, the Associate Dean of the Faculty of Law, at the University of Nairobi.


In a clear departure from the stand taken by international observers, and in particular the European Union the Election Observation Mission (EU-EOM) in Kenya, the World Bank memo indicates that Mr Bruce, who is in charge of Kenya, Comoros, Eritrea, Rwanda, Seychelles and Somalia, together with the UN, had initially broken ranks with the EU-EOM about the results of the presidential elections.

“The considered view of the UN is that the ECK announcement of a Kibaki win is
correct,” reads the internal memo between Mr Bruce and Hartwig Schafer, the Director of Operations Africa Region based in Washington DC. Mr Graham Elson, the
Deputy Chief Observer of the EU-EOM, however told the Business Daily, that the EU-EOM still stands by the contents of the preliminary statement they issued. “We will release a full statement in February which will give more details,” he said.


The email, obtained by the Business Daily on Monday concludes that upon receiving complaints from the opposition about irregularities, the ECK spent 24 hours, in the presence of observers, reviewing each concern.

“On balance, they determined that there were more irregularities of consequence on Mr Odinga’s side than on the Kibaki side. For example, ECK considered reported turnout above 90 per cent to be a red-flag for irregularities. Data available so far indicates that the highest reported turnout in a Kibaki stronghold was 90 percent; in Mr Odinga’s strongholds, there were six heavily populated areas with a reported turnout of between 102 to 116 per cent,” reads the email, which however does not name
the six areas.

The memo states that the draft EU-EOM report cites two onstituencies (Kieni and Molo) in which Kibaki’s margin was inflated, but does not say whether that invalidates the overall results.

“The reader is left to determine that the inflation could not have been higher than 48,000 votes against the ECK declared margin of victory of 230, 000,” reads
the email.


Contacted by the Business Daily, Mr Bruce, through a spokesman, confirmed the authenticity of the correspondence. Mr Schafer, the senior World Bank official to whom Mr Bruce wrote the memos, did not respond to emails sent to him, neither did he return calls. Mr Bruce said the memo was a factual account of information available at the time to the World Bank from various sources. “It is part of the normal
reporting on Kenya that takes place between Nairobi and headquarters. It is not a position statement,” he said.

In public, the World Bank, through press releases is however more cautious on how it deals with the political situation in Kenya, though, unlike the EU-EOM, it does not out rightly deny Mr Kibaki’s re-election. Instead, the Bank raises concerns about the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and warns that the
current crisis may hinder recent economic growth.

A press release from the World Bank in Kenya, states that the GDP growth rate of seven per cent, rising business confidence, increasing tourism, measurable
progress in firm level productivity, significant gains in democratic development, and the lifting of over two million Kenyans out of poverty would be put at risk if the crisis is not urgently dealt with.


***********************************
2. Kenya: Kufuor leaves as talks hit stalemate


Daily Nation (Kenya) - January 11, 2008.


Nairobi (Kenya) - Ghana's John Kufuor has left Nairobi with no deal out
of efforts to reconcile President Kibaki and his challenger Raila Odinga
of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).


The Ghanaian President, who is also chairman of the African Union had
earlier decided to extend his stay in Kenya to tomorrow, but seems to
have decided to leave early after the talks apparently failed.

He was escorted to the airport by President Kibaki. Mr Kufuor had been
in a long meeting with Mr Odinga after having had another one with
President Kibaki yesterday evening.


The two left the meeting at Nairobi's Intercontinental Hotel without a
word to waiting journalists. Earlier indications were that a meeting
between President Kibaki and Mr Odinga was in the offing, with protocol
officers setting up at the Office of the President at Harambee House and
nearby roads closed.


However, the red carpet was taken away and the heavy security deployment
at the planned venue withdrawn. In brief comments to reporters, the
Ghanaian President said that former UN secretary general Kofi Anan was
due to take over the mediation role. No comment has come from the ODM
following today's developments.
*******************************
3. Kenya: ODM to resume nationwide protests


Standard (Kenya) - January 11, 2008.


The Orange Democratic Movement will on Friday march to police headquarters to give notice of planned countrywide protests over the disputed presidential election after crisis talks spearheaded by the African Union head, John Kufour, failed.


The party will today release a mass action programme, following the
collapse of mediation talks on Thursday. In a statement to the media,
ODM leaders will address a press conference at Pentagon House, "to
announce the immediate resumption of countrywide
protests."


ODM launched protests in Nairobi immediately President Kibaki was
declared winner but police outlawed the rallies blocking all major roads
to the city. The protests led to bloody clashes between ODM supporters
and security forces, adding to a total death toll of around 500. On Thursday, AU chairman and Ghanaian, President John Kufour, flew out after failing to bring together ODM leader Raila Odinga, who claims the vote was stolen, and Part of National Unity leader Mwai Kibaki.


Kufuor said former U.N. head Kofi Annan, another Ghanaian, would lead a
group of eminent Africans in another push to resolve the crisis. It
however remains unclear when Annan and the "eminent leaders" will jet in
to help resolve the political crisis. Kibaki has said he will consider a
coalition, while Odinga would prefer a re-run of the election. Both
leaders have maintained their hard-line positions.


The failure to pull a breakthrough in the talks threw the country into
political uncertainty, with the echoes of recent post-election violence
that rocked the country and left over 250,000 displaced still fresh in
people’s minds. ODM immediately retreated into further strategic meetings on Thursday night and announced it had a handful of options it would roll out following the deadlock.


The Government restated its position that it remained committed to
dialogue "for peace and reconciliation" in the country. Both sides
accused each other of causing the stalemate and of bad faith in the
negotiations.

The Presidential Press Service issued a Government statement on Thursday
saying: "The Government had offered dialogue which was to be facilitated
by President John Kufuor but ODM leaders have not been responsive.

However, the Government is still committed to dialogue and President
Kuffuor is to identify two eminent African Statesmen to facilitate dialogue


***********************************


4. Kenya: Whither the Kenyan people?


Pambazuka News, by Wangui wa Goro - January 11, 2008.


The Kenyan elections on Thursday December 27th 2007,
after polling stations were closed, were supposed to fulfill an
African dream, to have a free and fair closely contested democratic election.
The outcome has shown the fragility of the postcolonial and
post-dictator state of Kenya and much of Africa.


After the carnage which has left over 500 people dead,
over a quater of a million people displaced and many others fleeing
from the region in fear of reprisals and for their lives, the dream had
become a horrible nightmare, manifesting itself through murder,
spontaneous rioting, organized thuggery, politically motivated and
ethicized targeted attacks.


That was the week that was gripping the democratic
world with shock and utter dismay and waking the world to the reality that
the haven of peace, the African show case of democracy and the
darling of the West was crumbling and revealing an unpleasant underbelly
which has been camouflaged for far too long. It revealed the real
Kenyan who is the casualty of party political posturing, a weak state, a
world which has preferred not to see the decay of many years and the
rot which has set in since colonial times to the present.

The vulnerable, dispossessed, the economically and socially marginalised; and things
may get worse before they get better. Kenya is a test case of what
is happening all over Africa and the post-colonial world: The crumbling
of a colonial and postcolonial order. It is not just an electoral
moment, but the foundation of democracy, not just in Kenya but beyond.


The question, after the storm, however is how Kenya and indeed
Africa is going to move forward beyond the impasse created by a state and
electoral system which has essentially collapsed and dictators who want to
hang on to power to their very last at the expense of lives and the
people.


We must look to the Kenyan people for an answer, as it is they who have
to face the next morning, their children, their families, and not
policies hatched out far away by well meaning,interested and benevolent
friends, kith and kin, from which ever guise they may come. Here-in lies
the answer to the question of the secret or not so secret passage out of
the mess, and a huge mess it is.

Although from where we stand it does not look like it, the time for
Kenyans and Africans has come. The overreliance on state, on the
goodwill of parties or individual politicians, on paternalistic/maternalistic international benevolence has shown up the weaknesses in a nation which does not listen to its own people and which does not function within universally accepted
democratic principles (please let me not hear the word relativism again!)


An emerging strong civil society is finally flexing its muscle on behalf
of the Kenyan people and reminding the contending and other interested
parties that the crisis goes beyond the electoral and constitutional
issues to the very core of the identity of Kenya and Kenyans.

In addition to adding a very clear political voice into the debate, the
civil society and pro-people organisations have also rolled up their sleeves and stepped into action to alleviate the humanitarian suffering of their fellow citizens and have been acting as their own advocate both at home and abroad, thus performing the role of the state and its conscience in many instances.


In many ways, Kenyans have been pushing towards a Kenyan voice to be
heard long before and after independence, only to be drowned and ignored
by those holding state power and others whose interests seem to
supersede those of the majority of Kenyans.

This is through failed promises such as those of institutionalizing the constitution and holding of free and fair elections since Kenya became an independent state and worse, when it became a one party state.

The history of Kenya is littered with the undermining of the constitution,
banning opposition, repressing individuals, fraudulent
elections and bypassing of the instruments of democracy by party, class and
individual interests which have so far been the order of the day. No
longer. As well as a very vocal opposition and in true Kenyan tradition,
the Kenyans are not having it. Through the opposition party, civil society
and Kenyans of conscience across all class, ethnic and social
spectrum all over the world, a powerful message is emerging and the world
needs to listen.

The civil society and pro-people organisations in particular, speaking on
behalf of the Kenyan people have issued a powerful statement which
rejects the highjacking of people's democracy by refusing to recognize
what they consider a "palace coup" which is what lies at the heart of
the current disquiet despite its varied manifestations. However, they
are not seeking piecemeal solutions and have quickly grasped the fact
that solving the current crisis will require more than
a temporary fix;

a whole reconstruction. They recognize that Kenya needs to move on
beyond the current crisis towards a longer term solution which calls for
reconstructing a new democratic foundation. They feel that this is a
national crisis and not just a party political issue
which in any case, the country cannot leave to the interested parties to
resolve on their own.


It is a courageous call on behalf of the Kenyan people that the civil society has called for a rejection of the regime as it is currently constituted and called for a process where electoral and human rights justice are pursued through all the means available.

They have gone further and asked the international community not to
recognize the regime. They are have also called for an interim
government of national unity to oversee a transitional justice process which
would go beyond the electoral crisis and one which would begin to look
at the underlying issues which led to the current crisis including
weaknesses in the system such as the constitutional and electoral
arrangements.

They are also calling for a national people's convention which
would be part of building the road map out of the crisis and also
leading to fresh elections. Such a legally constituted and recognized
body as an interim government of national unity would be empowered to
oversee such a transitional arrangement. Justice seems to lie at the
heart of such a demand.


The international community has also moved swiftly by
rallying to the Kenyan people's call and particularly the intervention
of imminent people such as Desmond Tutu and President John Kuffour
of Ghana, also the current head of the African Union.

This demonstrates that there is hope in democracy through solidarity. The hope for a
Pan-Africa solution seems highly prized and many in the world are watching
with bated breath and hope that Kenya, for Pan African's sake can heed
the wider call of the continent and its peoples. The world intellectuals, activist, ordinary people from all walks of life and media too, (despite initial negative reporting by the Western media in particular) has played a crucial role in engaging the Kenyan process with keen interest and itself is a promise of global democracy and solidarity out of which much of the democratizing process can be learned for all
humanity.


The world wills it, only those without eyes will not see, those without
ears will not hear and history will judge them individually and
collectively, very harshly, in the public global glare of the media in
the here and now and in the future.


* Dr. Wangui wa Goro: Kenyan human rights activist,
writer, translator, academic and public intellectual. Currently Associate
Fellow at the Institute of Human Rights and Social Justice; London
Metropolitan University.